Fresh analysis from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) has revealed the devastating consequences of the UK government’s new welfare reforms. Experts have warned that more than three million people may face losses of up to £12,000 each year due to the impending cuts to benefits administered by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). Disability activists and anti-poverty organisations are voicing deep concern, arguing that these sweeping changes will worsen existing inequalities and push countless vulnerable individuals into severe financial difficulty.
Welfare Reforms Threaten Income of Disabled and Vulnerable Groups
The proposed cuts, first announced in March 2025, are expected to strike hardest at those already grappling with significant health challenges. According to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, individuals who are unable to complete essential daily activities such as washing, dressing, or feeding themselves, as well as those with chronic mental health conditions, will experience some of the most severe losses. Central to the changes is the freezing of the health element of Universal Credit and stricter eligibility for Personal Independence Payments (PIP), a move campaigners say is both cruel and counterproductive.
PIP Reductions Forecast Substantial Financial Losses
The government’s plan includes removing eligibility for the daily living component of PIP for hundreds of thousands of individuals. Around 370,000 current claimants undergoing reviews and 430,000 future applicants could lose their entitlement, resulting in an average reduction of £4,500 per year by 2029/30. The daily living component is vital for individuals who rely on assistance with fundamental activities necessary for independent living. Losing this support will leave many disabled people struggling to maintain a basic standard of dignity and self-sufficiency in their everyday lives.
Universal Credit Freeze to Exacerbate Financial Pressures
In addition to the changes to PIP, around 2.25 million current recipients of the health component of Universal Credit will see a drop in their incomes, averaging £500 a year. Although the government has announced a modest increase in the basic standard allowance of Universal Credit, experts have pointed out that it does little to mitigate the overall financial blow. Furthermore, approximately 730,000 future Universal Credit recipients are projected to lose around £3,000 annually as a result of the combined effect of the freeze and cuts, with these measures set to remain in place until 2030.
Loss of Passporting Benefits Could Deepen Household Hardship
The Joseph Rowntree Foundation also highlighted the hidden risks tied to the loss of PIP, describing it as a “passporting benefit.” Losing eligibility for PIP often means losing access to a range of other support measures, such as Carer’s Allowance, which many families depend on. As a result, households already under significant financial strain could experience even greater hardship. The ripple effects of these changes could destabilize family incomes, leaving many without critical financial lifelines needed for stability and care.
Government Estimates Under Fire Amid Accusations of Inaccuracy
While the government has attempted to downplay the impact by suggesting that the average loss will amount to £1,720 per family per year, critics argue that the official figures are misleading. These estimates fail to consider the broader reality that many will be forced off benefits altogether without viable employment opportunities. Think tanks such as the New Economics Foundation have accused the government of engaging in “false accounting” since the major reforms they cite have not yet been properly introduced. Many fear the true financial consequences are likely far worse than government projections suggest.
Labour Strongholds Identified as Epicenters of Welfare Impact
Additional findings from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation reveal that Labour strongholds are set to bear the brunt of the cuts. Constituencies such as Liverpool Walton, Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney in Wales, and Blackpool South have some of the highest rates of residents relying on health-related benefits. For example, Liverpool Walton leads the list with 20.3% of working-age individuals dependent on such benefits. In Wales, Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney follows closely, where 19.9% of the working-age population are similarly affected. These regions are poised to experience some of the most profound social and economic fallout from the cuts.
Serious Doubts Raised About Employment Claims Linked to Cuts
A major part of the government’s justification for the benefit reductions is the assertion that they will encourage more disabled individuals to find work. However, evidence to support this claim is noticeably absent. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has not been provided with sufficient data to assess whether the proposed changes will indeed boost employment among disabled people. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation has pointed out that this lack of transparency severely undermines the credibility of the government’s position. Critics argue that instead of promoting workforce participation, the reforms could drive disabled individuals even further from meaningful employment opportunities.
